Could it be that Chile little by little recovers the drop in exports of 2023? (part II)

March 2023

Because of my numerical training, I have always thought that numbers speak to us. The important thing is to have the sensitivity to interpret them, beyond the first glance.

Analyzing the Chilean wine exports, the LTM Jan-24 statistic shows a more positive trend regarding its previous years, explained by some of its main markets, driven by the recovery of Japan, mildly the USA and specially UK from Oct-23. China seems to have stopped its decline, Jan-24 for the first time exceeds the respective month of the previous year. And, Brazil, although with a seasonal decrease, is above the previous 2 years, helped by a moderate appreciation of its currency and a low but steady growth.

2023 was a year of more controlled inflation after COVID, but more contracted in growth due to geopolitical and macroeconomic variables, which affected consumption, with the consequent overstock. 2024 should be a year of recovery, with low but stable GDP growth in the main markets, which should be reflected in a recovery in consumption. 

It seems that the numbers tell us about a moderate recovery in Chilean wine exports in 2024. However, for producers, it is important to maintain a conservative structure in their expenses and production, aiming at attending more stable markets and geographic diversification.

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